@db6rs: That will depend on the mode. People have already managed to get 100mW-200mW to work on CW, 500mW on SSB. Considering SSB requires ~6db more, that fits within the ball park.
For a first *guestimate* take how much less S/N your chosen digital mode needs over CW, and calculate from that, that should give a good idea.
However, you must take into account the antenna used. The 100-200mW CW station was using a 50x60m dish. the 500mW SSB station had a 1.2M dish
Also, we don't know exactly what will happen when more folks start to use the transponder, figures may change if it gets very busy, It will be fun finding out...